The December Distinguished Lecture Series at The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), a part of The University of Alabama System, hosted former United States Ambassador to Russia, John J. Sullivan. The speaker’s talk centered on U.S. foreign affairs, in particular the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where he detailed the significance of Russian President Vladimir Putin as a “self-described enemy of the United States.”
Sullivan was appointed a Distinguished Fellow at Georgetown University in 2022 after retiring from a career in public service spanning four decades and five U.S. presidents. Before his most recent post in Moscow, Sullivan served as the 19th U.S. Deputy Secretary of State from 2017 to 2019, as well as the acting U.S. Secretary of State in March-April 2018. For three years, the diplomat managed the U.S. Embassy in Russia during its most difficult period in many decades.
“I arrived in the winter of 2020,” the speaker noted. “It was dark 18 hours a day, because the city is so close to the Arctic Circle. They’ve made this little jewel of Moscow. It’s a beautiful city – but you have to drive only a little ways out from the city to see what it’s really like in Russia. In the run up to war, it was a bit surreal. I was like Abraham Zapruder on the grassy knoll in Dallas in November 1963. I’ve got my camera running, and there is this aggressive, brutal war that Putin started.”
On Feb. 24, 2022, Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine in a steep escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War extending back to 2014. The campaign had been preceded by a Russian military buildup since early 2021 with numerous Russian demands for security measures and legal prohibitions against Ukraine joining NATO.
“Russia will never accept Ukraine as a part of NATO,” Sullivan said. “The Russians have two goals in the war: to ‘de-Nazify’ and demilitarize Ukraine. Putin will not vary from that as long as he is upright and walking on God’s green earth. The only way he would take a graceful way out of it involves a victory parade.”
The former U.S. diplomat depicted the Russian leader as utterly undeterred by the length of the war or the cost – in lives, materiel and economically – to his country.
“The Russian government did all it could to shield its population from the fact they were going to war,” Sullivan said. “We knew Putin was going to invade. Where we weren’t prepared was whether Ukraine had the will and wherewithal to resist. We were surprised. The big mistake by Putin was, as he has now admitted, ‘Yeah, we’re not as good as we thought we were, and the Ukrainians are better than we thought they are.’”
Response from the West
As to the justification for the U.S. response to the invasion, the speaker didn’t mince words.
“There’s nothing sacred in Russia. Everything, including the Russia Orthodox church, is a part of the security state. What Putin has done is virtually indistinguishable from what the Nazis did in August 1939. Putin may have had all kinds of concerns and complaints about Ukraine, but as time goes on, people forget about the naked aggression by Russia. Pure aggressive nationalism. If you’re not willing to stand up to aggression, how are you going to have a successful Russian policy?
“We haven’t had the courage of our convictions. Are we really concerned about defeating the Russians in Ukraine? Putin draws all these red lines, and we are a little cowed by them, trying to avoid direct war, but we have continued to cross them. The Biden administration has been cautious. Ukraine was not going to be provided weapons, until recently, that would strike deeper into Russia.”
When questioned about the number one topic on most minds with respect to the conflict, namely nuclear war, Sullivan offered hope to potentially allay fears.
“The least likely event is that Russia would respond with a tactical nuclear weapon,” the former ambassador opined. “The likelihood of Russia going into NATO countries – what we have seen is some minor spillover in some places, mostly with drones, like in Poland and Moldova. A big concern is the cooperation between Russia and China in the Arctic. All the members of the Arctic Council are now members of NATO, all except Russia – which is a problem for Putin.
“Without China’s support, the Ukraine war would be very difficult for Russia to prosecute. The relationship between Moscow and Beijing is interesting and dangerous for the West. It’s not just Ukraine or the Middle East, it’s China and this axis of threats. Iran is producing drones in Russia.”
The talk soon returned to its central focus, however.
“So, if you don’t care about Ukraine, you have to care about Russia,” Sullivan said. “It’s opposing Russian aggression, the country with the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. Allowing Putin to wage an illegal, aggressive war is a war crime. In World War II the Nazi leaders were first charged with starting an aggressive war, and they were all hanged for it.”
“The Russians were so brutal, my fear is that it’s just not possible,” Sullivan concluded. “Putin will never give up, and Ukraine will never give up. [Ukraine President Volodymyr] Zelensky doesn’t have the political capital. If he said the Russians can keep the territory they have taken, he will no longer be in office. The average Russian now wants Russia to win. The way they look at it is, ‘We lost millions to liberate Ukraine from the Nazis.’ But Russia shooting a nuke, that is anathema to Beijing. He would lose all international support.”
Regarding a “fair and just end to the conflict,” the speaker remained unequivocal.
The UAH Distinguished Lecture Series aims to enhance community collaboration among The University of Alabama in Huntsville, Redstone Arsenal agencies and corporations in Cummings Research Park. The series raises awareness and understanding of current events and future trends, and how these activities can be positively influenced through the knowledge and actions among the region’s government, corporate and academic partners.