SATellite Convection AnalySis and Tracking (SATCAST) System Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Enhancements

UAH-P-13014-Satellite Convection Analysis and Tracking (SATCAST) System Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Model Enhancements

Docket: UAH-P-13014


The SATellite Convection AnalySis and Tracking (SATCAST) system uses non-satellite data as a means of enhancing the information content within Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) SEVIRI and GOES Imager data. This algorithm predicts where new convective storms, thunderstorms, or rainfall are likely to occur within the coming 30-60 min by extrapolating growing cloud trends as seen in GOES satellite imagery. The main limitations of the previous version of SATCAST were the high false alarm rates, the limited use of data not provided by GOES satellites, and the lack of information made available about the atmospheric environment in which the cloud is growing.

Researchers at UAH have developed a unique SATCAST algorithm that focuses on the use of geostationary-based infrared and visible observations combined with derived satellite parameters, Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) fields, and conventional and dual-polar metric radar observations to gain increased understanding for making 0-1 hour nowcasts of convective initiation (CI) and lightning initiation (LI). SATCAST uses a logistic regression methodology to produce an index. This algorithm produces the object tracking version of previous SATCAST systems. This new method outlines how 0-1 hour CI nowcasts can be constrained in terms of false alarms through the use of NWP model fields. This can significantly improve the CI nowcasts and help identify favorable or unfavorable conditions for CI.

The new SATCAST procedure provides enhanced, more accurate 0-1 hour CI nowcasts compared to those of previous SATCAST methods that used only GOES satellite fields. This SATCAST methodology is also faster and makes available more accurate skill statistics.


  • Weather broadcasts and forecasters
  • Navigation systems
  • Cell phones
  • Medical device and equipment testing


  • Efficient
  • Wide area coverage
  • Forecast in areas of lightning and storms


  • State of Development: Proof of concept
  • Licensing Status: Not available for licensing
  • Patent Status: Patented