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By JOHN A. GILBERT
In prior years, I went with five selections and a couple of alternates. This year, the field was so strong that I initially highlighted eight schools that I thought could strike gold. But after carefully reading Reno's commentary regarding the problems that they encountered in the Mid-Pac, I think that the defending champions will have difficulty placing in the top five (see details below)... so I've reduced the number of my picks to seven. At times, this competition is very serious... but please keep in mind that my commentary is just for fun... written mainly to heighten the interest in concrete canoeing, give the qualifiers the recognition that they deserve, and to shed light on past, present, and future competitions. In any case, the opinions expressed here are my own and do not reflect those of Team UAH, ASCE, ConcreteCanoe.org, and/or the sponsors of the 2009 NCCC. I'm getting pretty old and senile so... What do I know anyway? The "top five" rule... Let's begin with a little history... some bad, mostly good. Just in case you missed it or didn't know, I paddled my first concrete canoe as a faculty member up at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee... thirty five years ago this coming December. I feel compelled to say that I've served as a faculty advisor to Team UAH for the past twenty-four years. But I probably shouldn't mention that I won the only two faculty races held for points at the national level... just in case anyone gets the bright idea of reinstating this event. So far, I can say that I retired from competition as a national champion... and I'd kind of like to keep it that way. During the period 1988-1994, Team UAH represented the Southeast six out of seven years at nationals but the other 20+ schools in our region had grown tired of that. The 1995 Southeast Regional Competition was filled with controversy that further fueled the fire... and the major contenders went to the 1996 Regional competition in Tuscaloosa with guns drawn. Teams were continuously at one another's throats for three long days as students vied for bragging rights in the canoe and nine other competitions. There was very little applause for anyone during the banquet, and utter silence as Team UAH claimed the concrete canoe trophy and what we thought was our seventh overall Regional title. But when I received a copy of the final report for the Regional, I noticed that a scoring error had inadvertently been made in computing the point total that determined the overall winner. The concrete canoe title belonged to us... but the Regional title really should have been awarded to our arch rival, the University of Florida! I brought the unfortunate situation to Alabama's attention and they were kind enough to make arrangements for Florida and us to exchange the first and second place trophies. Florida was understandably upset but, for the first time in a long time, tensions between our teams began to ease. At the same time, ASCE decided to initiate what is now known as the "top five" rule. This marked a turning point in the Southeast where our relatively large and talented contingent finally received the recognition that we so well deserved. As a result, all of the schools in our region began showing mutual respect and a very strong bond and pride in our collective Regional accomplishments began to develop. The question of splitting the Southeast into smaller regions has been suggested many times since then... but every time it has, the motion has been voted down by an overwhelming majority of the students in attendance at the business meeting. Over the past twelve years, the competitive nature of our teams has not changed but a very positive chemistry has developed between the Gators and us. You'll see that for yourself if you come to Tuscaloosa this time round. The verbiage associated with the top five rule has not changed much over the years. According to the 2009 NCCC Rules and Regulations, "If any of the top five placed teams from the previous year’s National Competition (see PAST WINNERS AND HOST SCHOOLS) qualify for the current year’s National Competition, the second place team from their respective conference will be invited to attend the National Competition, assuming that they meet all of the qualification requirements." All five regions affected by the rule capitalized on it in 1997. The rule paid off big time for Florida Tech that year because they beat us at the national level... marking the only time in history that a second place qualifier has won the national title. Through the years, the rule has allowed other regions to become more cohesive and successful by fielding more than one representative. I shutter to think what would have happened in the Carolinas if Clemson had locked out their sister schools during their fourteen year consecutive winning streak. Reno may never have won a national title if they had not gotten national exposure in 2006 after qualifying in the Mid-Pacific as a result of Berkeley's fourth place finish in the 2005 NCCC. This year, all Conferences affected by the rule capitalized on it and my prediction is that this will significantly affect the outcome in Tuscaloosa. I'll say more about this later but before I do, I would like to thank the supporters and readers of concretecanoe.org. My hat goes off to schools like Wisconsin for archiving the top national design reports and Laval for hosting our video and photo galleries. Clemson and Reno have historically provided spreadsheets for the national competitions, and I very much appreciate the cooperation of the national qualifiers and conference host schools for providing the photos and information that make our site one of the most interesting on the web. I was very pleased to have had the information required to post all of the regional conference winners... the day after those competitions took place.An international epidemic... If you've haven't had a chance to read the article that Andrea Barnes and I wrote for the latest issue of Concrete Canoe Magazine (free download here), you may be surprised to learn how widespread and serious concrete canoeing has become. The top three finishers in both the men's and women's races at the 11th German Concrete Canoe Competition, for example, automatically qualified to paddle against other world champion canoeists. The 12th German Concrete Canoe Competition is just as serious. The newest addition to the international contingent was Singapore. But when Andrea and I wrote the article, we didn't realize that the Concrete Institute of Australia had already begun to sponsor concrete canoe competitions there (see most recent flyer). You may want to listen to Ms. Bree Bennett's comments recorded prior to the 3rd Annual Adelaide University Concrete Canoe Challenge that took place on February 27, 2009 in West Lakes, South Australia to see what they think of our U.S. competition "down under." This year marks the 38th anniversary of concrete canoeing and I've updated "Concrete Canoe Fever" and "For the Record" as best I could. I'm still bound and determined to get that illusive spreadsheet from the 1990 NCCC... and I plan to continue sending emails to the veterans of this competitions asking them for it... until the day I die. OK... enough said, let's get down to the business at hand. Top picks for 2009... As I've mentioned many times before, this competition amounts to selecting the best of the best... the past champions know that it takes a balanced effort and a cool head to take home the national title. Considering that 20 of the 22 national qualifiers are veterans and that there are six past national champions in the field (4 U.S. and 2 Canadian title holders), there will be little margin for error if a team aspires to place top five. Given the fact that UC Berkeley beat the defending champs from Nevada Reno in the Mid-Pacific Conference and that they have a record sixteen national appearances under their belts, I view the "Bears" as the favorite. But all of the veterans know that winning one day doesn't mean victory the next... and, as far as I'm concerned, the 2009 national title is up for grabs... especially considering that the four schools with the highest average placement records in NCCC history are in the hunt. In my opinion, The University of California Berkeley (Bears) will be challenged by (in alphabetical order): Alabama- Huntsville (TeamUAH), Cal State – San Luis Obispo (SLO), Clemson University (3CT), The Ecole de Technologie Superieure (ETS), The University of Florida (Gators), and Universite Laval (Laval). I'll tell you why later. But first it's... Off to Vegas... As mentioned previously, Berkeley is arguably the favorite. Given the fact that ETS won the 2009 Canadian Nationals, they will be a strong contender. Florida, Clemson, and Cal Poly-SLO offer very sound investments. Considering that Laval placed second to ETS in Canada and that they have not appeared at the national level since 2004, the team has got to be considered a long shot. But, if I were making a wager, I'd be looking at getting better odds and a possibly sizable return by paying attention to at least two of the second place qualifiers... Reno and Team UAH. As explained below, Reno will play a major role by scoring points everywhere and anywhere they can while UAH will most likely mature and get better with age. Hey... if you took my advice over the past ten years and wagered just a small sum, you might have been a multi-millionaire by now. Hit rate... For the record, I have a hit rate of 89% for selecting the top five (see chart below). In my 2004 Coverage, I established a precedent of writing down every question posed by the judges to the teams during the oral presentations. Simply click on the links to the schools listed in the order of placement. I continued this practice in the 2005 Coverage, 2006 Coverage, 2007 Coverage, and 2008 Coverage Teams that were fortunate enough to qualify in 2009 may just want to review this information before venturing into their question and answer session.
Judges... The judges for the competition were selected based on their experience in the field of civil engineering and their understanding of concrete as a building material. They include:
Alabama will be playing their trump card in 2010...
According to the 2009 NCCC Rules and Regulations: "The host school has the choice of competing in the current year or delaying their entry until the following year."
The University of Alabama - Tuscaloosa has decided to concentrate on hosting the 2009 National Concrete Canoe Competition and will defray their national bid until 2010. Their appearance next year will mark the team's second national appearance (statistics). The defending champions... The University of Nevada, Reno is the defending champion. They are one of the fastest rising teams in NCCC history and have been kind enough to keep the national spreadsheets for ConcreteCanoe.org of late. Despite the fact that this will be only their fourth national appearance, the Wolfpack has proven to be a formidable competitor. With an impressive 3.33, UNR has the second highest average placement record in competition history. The Pack has a very good looking product but they ran into problems in the product category at the conference level. Points were reportedly deducted because their concrete mix was illegal and the boat did not pass the flotation test.
But The Pack has always taken a very aggressive stand while promoting their efforts and their national teams have had the will and spirit of well seasoned veterans. They caught my eye in 2006 as rookies and, in my opinion, were already in the cream of the crop then. Candid comments and blatant honesty lay testament to this team's character. Top five... not likely. 2009 NCCC Champion... can't be done. Bottom line: This team will be working hard to glean as many points as possible and will significantly influence the final outcome. With some skill and luck, they will finish top ten.
National commentary... Here's how I see the competition playing out ... with hyperlinks pointing to statistics, and logos pointing to web sites. I've placed my picks in alphabetical order. That places Team UAH on top. [Wait a minute John... Didn't you say that you are one of the faculty advisors there?]
The team studied their relatively poor performances of late and made radical changes in their competition strategy. Even though the majority of this year's team members are newcomers, Team UAH managed to hold their ground nicely in the water against Florida, winning the men's endurance race by a substantial margin. This year, the students decided to demonstrate a strong understanding of civil engineering principles while stressing: "It's what's inside that counts." They took a "no frills" approach ("less is more") while decorating their product but reported a major breakthrough in concrete technology that gave them the highest factor of safety in Team UAH history. If they learn from Florida's stellar performances in the presentation and design report categories, Team UAH will challenge the 2009 contingent for the national title. Since Alabama (one of three campuses in the Alabama system) decided not to compete, UAHuntsville will have the "home court" advantage. You can bet your bottom dollar that the Southeast will be cheering them on along with Florida... hoping that both teams will secure the top five spots required to ease stress during the 2010 Regional concrete canoe competition to be held at Auburn and hosted by UAH.
Top five... I hope so. 2009 NCCC Champion... relatively inexperienced but enthusiastic. A sixth national title could be in the works. Bottom line: These guys have worked so hard that they'll be winners... even if they don't place top five!
Finishing only once out of the top ten, Berkeley's four national wins (1988, 1989, 1991, 1992) and nine other top four finishes (1990, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008) give them the fourth highest average placement record in NCCC history (4.00). True to form, Berkeley will rely on their technical expertise and presentation skills to forge ahead of the pack early in the game. According to Reno, "We must admit that we thought San Jose State had everyone beat in final product for their simple and smooth canoe, 'Chack Mate.' But the judges favored Cal's exquisite inlays that depicted images of the Bay Area, and Berkeley edged them out for first place."
Berkley's "Bear Area" also draws a stark contrast to Team UAH's "ITZ Civilized" in which inlays were deliberately eliminated to minimize defects and increase the factor of safety. It's anyone's guess how the national judges will see, and score, this difference. A major glitch is that Nevada-Reno swept the races in the Mid-Pacific. Don't get me wrong... Berkeley teams are typically fast especially on the sprint. But the Bears will have to contend with stellar performances on the water from teams like Clemson and Florida. Top five... definitely. 2009 NCCC Champion... the team needs to improve on the pond to case their fifth national title in 2009. Bottom line: These guys are master craftsmen/women that are consistent players. They could end up in the winner's circle.
Cal State - San Luis Obispo has come on very strong lately, finishing top five in their last three national appearances. The school will be making their tenth national appearance and has an average placement record of 8.22.
Top five... perhaps. 2009 NCCC Champion... improvements need to be made across the board especially in their technical delivery and in the water. Bottom line: This team is on the move and will eventually lead the pack.
Despite the fact that Clemson is one of the most fierce of the national competitors, they remain one of the best liked teams in the game. They have kept the national spreadsheets on behalf of ConcreteCanoe.org and will be making their sixteenth national appearance. With a formidable 3.93, 3CT has the third highest average placement record in NCCC history.
3CT has fielded some of the strongest paddling teams in the history of the competition and their teams have the experience, teamwork, technical delivery, and faculty support that it takes to win. Serji Amirkhanian (3CT's long time faculty advisor... pictured at the right in the above photo) is back... after devoting significant time to administrative duties... and that will mean trouble for the rest of the pack!
Top five... likely. 2009 NCCC Champion... this team has been historically tenacious (see photo below) but they need to build back their momentum.
Bottom line: I think that you'll find 3CT in the top tier this year.
As the host of the 2008 NCCC, the Ecole de Technologie Superieure was the first team to qualify for the 2009 NCCC. To their credit, ETS successfully defended their conference title in Upstate New York and didn't need to play their national trump card.
Take last year for example. A structural flaw in ETS's boat forced the team to take their foot off the accelerator during the sprint races... but superior strategy allowed them to place first in the product category. Chances are that this year's entry will be flawless... making this team one to watch. Top five... good possibility. 2009 NCCC Champion... perhaps. Bottom Line: A major threat to the field. ETS is hungry for victory!
The University of Florida is a formidable national contender with teams that have never finished lower than eighth in six national appearances. Last year's team kept their cool under immense pressure from the national contingent and secured a top five finish on behalf of the Southeast. This year at the conference level, the Gators had a consistent delivery and a very good looking product. They also squeezed Team UAH and Florida Tech out in the water.
2009 National Champion... maybe so. Bottom line: This team will place constant pressure on the field... and may end up on top of the pack (Bears, Wolves, etc.). The long shot... We haven't seen Universite Laval for some time at the U.S. Nationals due to restrictions placed on eligibility... but they have a very strong performance record... continually driving upward to their three most recent second place finishes. Laval hosts the video and photo galleries for concretecanoe.org. They have an average placement record of 7.43 and they will be making their eighth national appearance.
Bottom line: This is a very high spirited team that may be
able to better the formidable position that they once held.
Another twist... I noticed while reviewing my pre-national coverage that Cal Poly SLO and ETS both christened their boats "Vintage" while Reno and Poly called theirs "Fusion." I don't recall this ever happening in the 21 year stint of the U.S. Nationals... although schools have used the same name in different years, i.e., "Archimedes" [UCLA 2008 and Clarkson 2006]; "Legacy" [Buffalo 2009 and Washington 2007], "The Wedge" [MSOE 2008 and Cal Poly - Pomona 2007], "Ramming Speed" [Florida Tech 1999 and Rhode Island 1998], etc. I'm still investigating this, slowly going back through my records, adding boat names to the statistics included in "For the Record." In any case, it will be interesting to see which schools promote their theme the best and how, or if, this is taken into account by the judges. If nothing else, it will place unwanted stress on all four teams... by adding complexity to an already complex competition. A strong national contingent... There are a number of schools who could place top five, even upset the
field and win, or influence the final outcome by scoring major points in one or
more categories. Expect strong showings from Cal
State Pomona, New
Mexico State University, and The
University of Wisconsin – Other veterans that could rise to the top include University at Buffalo, University of Cincinnati, Fairmont State, Ohio Northern University, University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown, Polytechnic Institute of New York, Southern Illinois University Edwardsville, and The University of Washington.
The two newcomers (no national statistics yet) are the University of Memphis and the University of Texas - Tyler. Chances are that they will have their hands full just getting acclimated. But if they get to Tuscaloosa early enough and "settle in," they could surprise everyone and end up scoring some major points in the competition. It has happened before... and it could happen again. The two newcomers bring the number of schools that will have participated at the national level to 110. For those of you who keep up with the national statistics, I inadvertently listed the University of Buffalo twice in the list... and caught my mistake earlier this year. As mentioned earlier, I'm still looking for a spreadsheet from 1990 (held at Buffalo... and only one of the two national competitions that I was unable to attend). So if you happen to have one, please email it to me. Thanks!
Synopsis... Here's my best guess for the top three finishers in the four major scoring categories (table includes only major five picks):
I wouldn't be placing any major bets based on the above table, since there are many other schools that could place high in any of these categories. Chances are very likely that Laval will squeeze in here somewhere (not to mention some of the other competitors)... the question remains where and in how many categories. The bottom line... This year's competition will be very close... Berkeley, is the favorite but UAH, Cal Poly - SLO, Clemson, ETS, Florida, and Laval will be challenging for the top spots. A slip by any of these competitors will mean disaster... making room for luckier and more skillful competitors (such as Reno, Evansville, New Mexico State, Platteville, Pomona, etc.) to finish in the top tier. But anything can happen... and all of the teams that I haven't targeted for the win will want to prove me wrong. If you do, rest assured that your school will be among my top picks in the years to come! Good luck and may the best team win... Needless to say, Team UAH and I will be out to win in Tuscaloosa. But we wish all of you the very best of luck at this year's competition. I'll be relying heavily on my fellow faculty advisor, Dr. Houssam Toutanji, to take care of business on site. And, I hope that you'll take time to say hello to Andrea and me as we report for ConcreteCanoe.org. If you enjoy our coverage and want to help support the effort, please contact me. We'll put your school to work and give you the exposure that you deserve. By adding a link on your site to ConcreteCanoe.org, you and your school can help promote the competition to a continuously expanding worldwide audience. So please see our graphics and instructions for doing so. Thank you in advance for your support and kind consideration. Closing remarks... In closing, I thought that the Committee on National Concrete Canoe Competitions (CNCCC) did an excellent job this year in formulating and clarifying the rules. My hat goes off to the Committee for working so hard to make this event happen. They are currently soliciting feedback from the competitors. Comments and/or suggestions should be sent to mcarnivale@pennoni.com with "Concrete Canoe Feedback" in the subject line. I commend the sponsors and ASCE for promoting concrete canoeing... and thank everyone in advance for making this one of the most exciting and rewarding competitions in the world! For the record, I grew up in New York City and attended the Polytechnic Institute of New York. But I absolutely love living in Huntsville, Alabama... and this "Damn" Yankee (defined down South as: "A Northerner that refuses to move back across the Mason-Dixon Line") looks forward to seeing you this June in "The Heart of Dixie!" There's a reason that we call our State "Alabama the Beautiful" and even the most skeptical of you will see why... if "Ya'll Come on Down" to visit. As always, I'll be following up on my predictions shortly after the competition is over. Ok.. the 2009 National Concrete Canoe Competition is over... and I feel pretty good about my predictions. UC-Berkeley placed first, ETS second, Cal Poly-SLO third, Florida fourth, and Nevada-Reno fifth. Berkeley really did an excellent job. They won the design paper and the oral presentation categories while placing third in the product category, giving the Bears the buffer that they needed to win after finishing sixth on the pond. For the record, Berkeley was the first national winner and last won this competition in 1992. They currently hold a record five national titles... along with Team UAH and the Wisconsin Badgers. Clemson is the only other multiple winner with three titles to their credit. I pegged Berkeley as the favorite to win. ETS didn't win any category but they were very consistent in their delivery. In addition to placing second in the paper, third in the presentation and fourth in the product category, the team won the Tony Crest Award for Innovation by developing an apparatus for testing vertically oriented plates. The 2009 Canadian National Champs also had an impressive showing on the water... moving from ninth place overall in 2008 to third place in 2009. ETS was one of my top five picks. Cal Poly - SLO won the best product category and presented a formidable challenge to Reno for the title of top dog on the pond. SLO showed a substantial improvement in this category, moving from fourth place overall in 2008 to second place in 2009; they won the prestigious John Craig Award for finishing first in the co-ed sprint. We'll see two schools from the Pacific Southwest in 2010. But something tells me that SLO won't need to play their trump card as the 2010 host school. My prediction is that they will be the first school to qualify in 2011. Poly was one of my top five picks. Florida's stint started a bit shaky after the Gators finished eighth in the design paper category. But they rebounded after finishing second in the presentation and product categories. The team fell from third (2008) to tenth (2009) place in total race points; testament to the remarkable improvements made in paddling by several other teams. The important thing is that Florida met the expectations of the Southeast contingent by allowing us to capitalize on the top five rule at the Conference level in 2010. Way to go Gators! Florida was one of my top five picks. Reno's top five finish was nothing short of remarkable considering that the defending champions did not score any points in the product category. Their first place finish on the pond saved the day for the Wolfpack... but lowered my hit rate in 2009 to 80%, since I took them out of the running (see above). My mistake... I should have known that this team could cut the mustard... even when things seemed bleak. Things look good for the Mid-Pacific Conference with Berkeley and Reno placing top five. My prediction is that we'll see two representatives from there next year. In closing, all of this year's national contingent were winners well before the national competition began... and, in my opinion, they significantly raised the bar as far as the level of this competition is concerned. My other top five picks (Laval, UAH, and Clemson) did fairly well. Although my team members (UAH) were somewhat disappointed after finishing ninth, they thoroughly enjoyed meeting students from other teams. I was very proud of their accomplishments and consider them winners because they gave it all they had. More importantly, this relatively "green" team saw what it takes to win firsthand and they are eager to return to nationals next year (see: Team UAH Memo). My fellow faculty advisor, Dr. Houssam Toutanji, and I are committed to help them get there by qualifying at Auburn. So keep a watchful eye on Team UAH. We'll be celebrating our 25th anniversary of concrete canoeing at UAH in 2010... and will be announcing our theme here soon. I'll certainly be focusing on New Mexico State and Pomona more closely now along with Cincinnati and Platteville. My hat goes off to Texas-Tyler, who won the Spirit of the Competition Award in their national debut. I thoroughly enjoyed the other newcomers' oral presentation. Memphis' delivery was both informative and entertaining and it received an absolutely wonderful audience response. Quite frankly, if I were judging this category, I would have ranked their presentation much higher than 17th... and would have taken a different stand on some other issues as well. That said, I'd like to recognize the sponsors, ASCE, the CNCCC, and the judges for their dedication... and the money, time and effort spent on this event. The University of Alabama did an excellent job as the national host. I thought that things ran very smoothly especially considering the inclement weather that we faced on Saturday. I can't stress the importance of publicizing your team's efforts on the web and am most willing to add a link to your site on ConcreteCanoe.org. Andrea Barnes and I very much appreciated your cooperation while on site and we hope that you enjoyed our 2009 NCCC Coverage. If you want to become a co-host and/or have an idea for another partition, please feel free to contact me. The 1990 spreadsheet has become the Holy Grail of concrete canoeing... so if you find it, be sure to send me a copy. As far as the Front Line is concerned, my percentage hit rate for picking the top five, over a ten year period, stands at 88%... not bad for an old guy. Good going Berkeley... you lived up to my expectations. I was very impressed by your organizational skills and technical delivery... and agree unequivocally with the judges' decision to crown your team the national champion. Undoubtedly, the best team won! Best of luck to all next year. Team UAH and I look forward to seeing you in California as we travel West in our quest to strike gold at the 2010 NCCC! |
The
regional conferences are over and it's
time to for me to take a shot at predicting the the top five finishers
in the 2009 National Concrete Canoe Competition. My understanding is that
letters of invitation were written to the qualifiers around April 27th
with responses requested by May 1st.
