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By JOHN A. GILBERT
A rough stint for Team UAH... One again, you'll get a fairly unbiased opinion, since Team UAH didn't qualify again this year. Our 2007/08 stint was plagued with problems. While building the practice boat, our Canoe Chair nearly lost his thumb while working with a table saw. This serious accident threw our team into turmoil by severing critical links in our organizational structure. The absence of our concrete canoe chair forced us to work together just to complete the tasks at hand. Individuals, who had previously been in supporting roles, were suddenly cast into leadership positions. There just wasn't enough time to pay attention to details and we were easy game at the Southeast Regional Conference in Orlando. But knowing that we didn't stand much of a chance to win, significantly eased pressure on our team. The important thing was that we all stuck together and had fun. I should mention at the outset that the "Gators" were virtually unstoppable and displayed a great deal of professionalism and team spirit.
As I watched the action on the beach, I couldn't help thinking that if I were a few decades younger, I may have seriously considered Gainesville; not so much to get a better education, but to get actively involved in the ASCE Student Chapter, because...
But watch out if your team qualified for nationals because these women are not only smart but awesome when it comes to paddling. You'll see for yourself... if you attend nationals. I'll say plenty more about this team later. But before I do, I would like to thank the supporters and readers of concretecanoe.org. My hat goes off to schools like Wisconsin for achieving the top national design reports and Laval for hosting our video and photo galleries. I very much appreciate the cooperation of the national qualifiers and conference host schools for providing the photos and information that make our site one of the most interesting on the web. An international epidemic... If you've haven't had a chance to read the article that Andrea Barnes and I wrote for the latest issue of Concrete Canoe Magazine, you may be surprised to learn how widespread and serious concrete canoeing has become. The top three finishers in both the men's and women's races at the 11th German Concrete Canoe Competition (click on "preview for the film" to see a video clip), for example, automatically qualified to paddle against the world champions at WM 2007 (the World Cup is next on June 13-15, 2008; see, WC 2008) in Duisburg.. The field at WM 2007 was the largest yet... with teams representing 80 different nations. With only a few months to go before the Summer Olympics (Beijing, August 8-24, 2008), some of these teams will be going for the gold. Wouldn't it be wonderful if a concrete canoe team qualified? Singapore is the latest addition to the international contingent... and the first national concrete canoe competition is underway with races to be held on May 25, 2008. The event is sponsored by Nanyang Technological University. Welcome Singapore!
OK... enough said, let's get down to the business at hand. Top picks for 2008... As I've mentioned many times before, this competition amounts to selecting the best of the best... the past champions know that it takes a balanced effort and a cool head to take home the national title. Considering that 21 of the 22 national qualifiers are veterans and that there are four past national champions in the field, there is little margin for error if a team aspires to place top five. With five consecutive titles under their belts… the University of Wisconsin – Madison is certainly the favorite. But things have changed over the past couple of years and "Buckingham" U. Badger, "Bucky" for short, will be in for a fierce battle. In my opinion, Off to Vegas... If I were making a wager, I wouldn’t be taking a risk for less than even money… by betting on the “Badgers” to win. I’d be placing most of my money on Florida to place... and betting the rest on Reno to show. If you would have taken my advice last year, you 'd have made a fortune. Chances are that these two schools will finish higher than second and third, respectively. Besides, the odds would be in my favor as far as these selections are concerned... because I’m privy to some very important inside information that I'll share with you soon. Perhaps I should keep all this to myself... and make arrangements to fly west from Huntsville to Vegas before heading northeast to Quebec. We’ll soon see! Hit rate... For the record, I have a hit rate of 90% for selecting the top five (see chart below). In my 2004 Coverage, I established a precedent of writing down every question posed by the judges to the teams during the oral presentations. Simply click on the links to the schools listed in the order of placement. I continued this practice in my 2005 Coverage, 2006 Coverage, and 2007 Coverage. Teams that were fortunate enough to qualify in 2008 may just want to review this information before venturing into their question and answer session.
Judges... ASCE typically announces who will judge the competition and I'll post that information here... if and when it becomes available. Meanwhile... ETS won't be playing their trump card in 2008...
The Ecole de Technologie Superieure successfully defended their conference title in Upstate New York and, as the host of the 2008 NCCC, they will defray their trump card and play it to participate in 2009.
Ecole de Technologie Superieure, the 2008 Canadian National Champion, will field "Toutatis." Their appearance in 2008 will mark ETS's third national appearance. They have a relatively low average placement record of 15.0. But I'd look for a significant improvement; despite the fact that this year's team will have to spend a great deal of time and energy hosting the competition. ETS won the 2008 Canadian National Concrete Canoe Competition where they placed first in the product category but races were no held due to high winds. Bottom Line: A top ten finish may be in the cards.
National commentary... Here's how I see the competition playing out ... with hyperlinks pointing to statistics, and logos pointing to web sites.
Host of the design report page for ConcreteCanoe.org, the Badgers are a veteran team that will be making their fourteenth appearance at the national level. Although Wisconsin carries momentum going into the competition, they will be under immense pressure from fellow competitors bound and determined to put an end their winning streak... and odds are that one of them will.
Last year, the Badgers won the competition with a very solid performance. They established their dominance going into the competition after tying for first place with Reno in the design report category... and that's exactly what they need to do this year if they expect to emerge victorious. Following their strong international win in the Netherlands, chances are that they will make only slight dimensional changes to their hull. By featuring the school's mascot, their “Buckingham” theme will be very strong... but they will face a formidable challenge by Florida in the presentation category. Bucky will be challenged for best product by at least three other competitors (Florida is one)... and must confront a well-schooled and very determined Florida contingent on the pond. Last year Wisconsin had a dream team with ace paddlers like Dave Blodgett. You'll understand what recreational paddling is all about when you watch the video from his Canadian trip. I can't tell you how many times I watched this clip... it's simply inspiring with a dynamite musical score. Top five... no doubt. 2008 NCCC Champion... the favorite hands down! Bottom line: Wisconsin won't place much lower than second or third unless they make a major mistake or get a bad break.
The "Gators" placed second at nationals last year while scoring their first national win in the oral presentation category. The Badgers only beat the Gators by one point in the water. This year, Florida's presentation is better and their paddling team is much faster. Although the Gators need to improve in the design report category (albeit, they placed a formidable third in 2007), their product is awesome... and "Gator Raider" will be hard to beat. I've seen a lot of boats since nationals began in 1988... and Florida's rivals the best of them. The detail on this entry is phenomenal; and, the "Gator" belly on the boat nothing short of remarkable. I spoke to some team members who said that they spent half their time during the Fall and Spring semesters on the project... and this dedication showed as the team swept by their competition in Orlando. Overall, Florida is stoked... and really, really fast!
The Gators know what they have to do to win in Quebec and will have a very large on-site contingent cheering them on. They didn't make too many dimensional changes in the hull but did improve the hydrodynamics of their canoe by refining its bow. Last year, Florida proved that they could stand up under the pressure of the competition and they will pose a significant threat to Wisconsin in Quebec. With a 6.00, they have the fourth highest average placement record of the 2008 contingent. If the team keeps their cool, a top five finish is a certainty. 2008 National Championship... the Southeast is eagerly waiting for you to bring it home baby! Bottom line: This team will win... even if they don't place first... because they'll give it all they've got!
Last year I pegged UNR as my long shot and they didn't let me down. They tied Wisconsin for first in the design paper and won the best product. Their 2006 team placed first in the presentation category; and, had the 2007 team not gone over time by a few seconds (putting them out of the point spread for that category), I believe that Reno would have won the national title. They know that too, and this time you can bet that there will be no mistakes! UNR has a good looking product and the team/boat are fast in the distance/slalom. If they improve their sprint times, Nevada will pose a formidable threat to the top contenders. Reno has always taken a very aggressive stand while promoting their efforts and their team has the will and spirit of a well seasoned national contender... they are in the cream of the crop.
Top five... definitely. 2008 NCCC Champion... very likely. Bottom line: This team won't be fooling around in Canada... they'll clean most competitors' clocks.
Despite the fact that Clemson is one of the most fierce of the national competitors, they remain one of the best liked teams in the game. They have kept the national spreadsheets on behalf of ConcreteCanoe.org. With a remarkable 3.71, they have the highest average placement record of the national contingent, second to UAH in all of the schools involved in the competition. 3CT has three NCCC titles to their credit and they hold the longest consecutive regional winning streak in NCCC history... representing the Carolina's Conference for fourteen years straight! 3CT has fielded some of the strongest paddling teams in the history of the competition and their teams have the experience, teamwork, technical delivery, and faculty support that it takes to win.
Clemson had some trouble last year and didn't qualify for nationals... but I'd bet my bottom dollar that they won't be making many mistakes in this year's competition. There's no doubt in my mind that "The Flying Tigers" will be coming on strong. Top five... likely. 2008 NCCC Champion... perhaps. Bottom line: If 3CT can build back their momentum and can hold their ground... you'll find them in the top four.
The University of California - Berkeley is a veteran team that has four national titles to their credit. This will be the Bears sixteenth appearance at nationals... the all time NCCC record! Finishing only once out of the top ten, Berkeley's four national wins (1988, 1989, 1991, 1992) and eight other top three finishes (1990, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, and 2006) give them the third highest average placement record in NCCC history (4.13) and the second highest among the national contingent. True to form, Berkeley will rely on their technical expertise and presentation skills to get ahead of the pack early in the game. This year, the Bears look to have a good product.
They are fast on the sprint... and with improvement in the distance/slalom, could capture a fifth national title with "Vocal." Top five... a good possibility. 2008 NCCC Champion... maybe... but things need to go like clockwork. Bottom line: These guys are master craftsmen/women... and just might sneak by everyone into the winners circle.
My fallback positions... Good handicappers need to hedge their bets, so I'm going to highlight two more schools that could take top honors. But this is the tough part... because there are so many other good teams that could finish high...if the chips fall their way. If any of my top five picks makes a mistake or weakens in any category,
SLO won the final product category in 2006 and placed second there last year. Their product looks very good this time round... but the competition in this category will be fierce. SLO proved last year that they could hold their own in the water... but they still need to improve their deliveries in the presentation and report categories... if they want to win the national title. Top five... perhaps. 2008 NCCC Champion... unlikely, more likely fourth or fifth. Bottom line: This team is on the move and will eventually lead the pack.
To place top five, Tech needs to secure all of the technical points that they can... and then get down to business in the water. Bottom line: Anything can happen. We'll see how it goes for Tech in Montreal.
A strong national contingent... There are a number of schools who could place top five, even upset the field and win, or influence the final outcome by scoring major points in one or more categories. If I could select one other school for top five it would be Michigan Tech. Strong showings could also come from Drexel, UCLA, University of Washington, ETS (Ecole de Technologie Superieure), and MSOE (Milwaukee School of Engineering). Other veterans that could rise to the top include The
University of Houston, The
University of Wisconsin –
The two newcomers (no national statistics yet) are Youngstown State University and Southern Illinois University Edwardsville. Chances are that they will have their hands full just getting acclimated. But if they get to Quebec early enough and "settle in," they could surprise everyone and end up scoring some major points in the competition. It has happened before... and it could happen again.
Youngstown State University will field "The Ghost."
Southern Illinois University Edwardsville will field "Play Ball." Synopsis... Here's my best guess for the top three finishers in the four major scoring categories (table includes only major five picks):
I wouldn't be placing any major bets based on the above table, since there are many other schools that could place high in any of these categories. Chances are very likely that Clemson and Berkeley will squeeze in here somewhere (not to mention some of the other competitors)... the question remains where and in how many categories. The bottom line... This year's competition will be very close... Florida, Wisconsin, and Reno will vie for the top three spots... with Clemson and Berkeley very close behind. A slip by any of these competitors will mean disaster... making room for luckier and more skillful competitors (Cal Poly-SLO, Florida Tech, Michigan Tech, etc.) to finish top five. But anything can happen... and all of the teams that I haven't targeted for the win will want to prove me wrong. If you do, rest assured that your school will be among my top picks in the years to come! Good luck and may the best team win... Team UAH and I wish all of you the very best of luck at this year's competition and hope that you'll take time to say hello to Andrea and me in Montréal as we report for ConcreteCanoe.org. If you enjoy our coverage and want to help support us, please contact me. We'll put your school to work and give you the exposure that you deserve. By adding a link on your site to ConcreteCanoe.org, you and your school can help promote the competition. So please see our graphics and instructions for doing so. Thank you in advance for your support and kind consideration. Closing remarks... In closing, I thought that the Committee on National Concrete Canoe Competitions (CNCCC) did an excellent job this year in formulating and clarifying the rules. My hat goes off to the Committee for working so hard to make this event happen. I commend the sponsors and ASCE for promoting concrete canoeing... and thank ACI and ASCE on behalf of all... for giving Wisconsin the international exposure that they so well deserved for winning in 2007. Great job "Badgers"... we're very proud of you! That's all for now... We'll see you in Quebec! |
The
regional conferences are finished and it's
time to predict the the top five finishers
in the 2008 National Concrete Canoe Competition. But please remember that the opinions expressed here are my own
and do not reflect those of Team UAH, ASCE, ConcreteCanoe.org, and/or the
sponsors of the 2008 NCCC.
