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By JOHN A. GILBERT
This year you'll get a fairly unbiased opinion, since Team UAH didn't qualify. For the record, I thought that our "Masterpiece" theme was pretty strong and the idea of creating a "canvas of concrete" catchy... but the University of Florida must have been inspired by the other teams at their school that earned national recognition including their basketball team's back-to-back national titles. The "Gators" were virtually unstoppable and they emerged victorious from the arena with "Gladigator"... after beating Florida Tech and us to a pulp. If this team holds their momentum and displays the fortitude, strength, and focus that we saw at the conference level, I would say that when the action is over in Seattle, the Southeast will have earned its seventh national title. So beware "Badgers" because the "Gladigator" cometh. Before going any further, I would like to thank the supporters and readers of concretecanoe.org. My hat goes off to schools like Wisconsin for achieving the top national design reports and Laval for hosting our video and photo galleries. I very much appreciate the cooperation of the national qualifiers and conference host schools for providing the photos and information that make our site one of the most interesting on the web. It may be time to lighten up... This year will be a really big show, since it's the 20th anniversary of the event. The competition will be fierce considering that the winner will get a free ride, sponsored by ASCE and ACI, to the 30th Annual Dutch Concrete Canoe Challenge... scheduled for September 7-9 in the Netherlands. But things have certainly changed over the past few years and, before handicapping the competition, I feel compelled to make a few observations and comments. The fact is that the national entries may look good... but they are much heavier and slower than concrete canoes of late. I attribute the overall decline in product performance to the restrictions placed on dimensions and concrete mix design. Now I understand why dimensional restrictions may have been imposed... perhaps to enable the national champion to qualify for the Dutch Challenge. But canoe enthusiasts... especially those affiliated with this competition... know that 20 feet is a bit too short to allow most of the national qualifiers to achieve maximum speed. If we want to impress the general public with our products and athletic prowess, we need to work with our international counterparts to ease the restrictions placed on length and width. As far as the mix design rules are concerned, perhaps we should consider "lightening up" a little... by giving our students a chance to strut their stuff and lessen their load (i.e., the weight of the boat). The most restrictive rules in this regard are those placed on aggregate composition and size. The rule that requires aggregates to constitute a minimum of 25% by mass of the cementitious mixture makes the boats much heavier; whereas, the rule that dictates that aggregates follow the ASTM C-33 sieve requirement makes it impossible for teams to place a concrete layer that is thinner than the largest diameter particle size required by the standard. Students participating in this competition have already redefined what is meant by a thin-walled reinforced section... by building structurally sound canoes with wall thicknesses on the order of 0.2"-0.3'. I think that they could reduce this even further... if constraints were eased. The result would be impressive products that would mystify the public and possibly revolutionize building construction.
Why not consider adopting a "KIS" principle, going with something simple like... "The concrete mix design must reflect a custom blend having a minimum of 50% cement and no epoxy. The use of all constituents must be fully justified... and points will be awarded based on innovative use of binders, admixtures, additives, and aggregates." Faced with an open-ended challenge like that (and a few less pages of rules), I believe that our students could make great strides and, from the sponsors' perspective, open new markets for cementitious materials and technology that none of us currently envision.
It should be noted that concrete canoeists and their boats are being taken very seriously in other countries like Germany. The top three finishers in both the men's and women's races at the 11th German Concrete Canoe Competition will automatically qualify to paddle against the world champions at WM 2007 in Duisburg.. With only one year to go before the Summer Olympics (Beijing, August 8-24, 2008), the field at WM 2007 will be the largest yet... with teams representing 80 different nations. Wouldn't it be wonderful if a concrete canoe team qualified for the Olympics? So... come on guys... let's lighten up and go for the gold! You may not agree with my take on these issues and think that everything is fine as is... but it is important to express your opinion. The Committee on National Concrete Canoe Competitions has asked for feedback on the national rules and they've gotten it from me. So, I encourage you to forward your comments to them at mcarnivale@pennoni.com with "Concrete Canoe Feedback" in the subject line. The fact is that they want to make this competition as fair and attractive as possible... and are waiting to hear from you! OK... it's time to get off my soapbox and down to business. Winners all... I should mention that every one of this year's national qualifiers is already a winner. This competition amounts to selecting the best of the best... the veterans know that it takes a balanced effort and a cool head to take home the national title. It remains to be seen which school will have the correct balance of composure, skill, and luck to win this year. But, as I've said so many times before... I believe that the key to victory lies in a team's ability to cope with human dynamics while working under constant pressure. Enough said... let's cut to the quick! Top picks for 2007... With only one prior national champion in the field and four consecutive national titles under their belts… it certainly looks like the University of Wisconsin – Madison is a shoe-in for the national title. Make no mistake, this team is definitely the favorite… and they know what it takes to win. But I know that the “Badgers” will be in for a real battle… when they step into the arena with their “Descendant” and face the likes of “Gladigator” and “Gitchee Gumee.” In my opinion, Off to Vegas... If this was horse racing and I was making an investment, I
wouldn’t be taking a risk for less than even money… by betting on the
“Badgers” to win. I’d be
placing most of my money on Chances are that these two schools will finish higher than second and third, respectively. Besides, the odds would be in my favor as far as these selections are concerned... keep in mind that I’m privy to some very important inside information that I'll share with you soon. Perhaps I should keep all this to myself... and make arrangements to change planes in Vegas while traveling from Hit rate... In any case, I currently have a hit rate of 87% for selecting the top five (see chart below). In my 2004 Coverage, I established a precedent of writing down every question posed by the judges to the teams during the academic presentations and continued this practice in my 2005 Coverage and 2006 Coverage. So, teams that were fortunate enough to qualify in 2007 may want to review this information
Judges... The individuals chosen to serve as judges for the 2007 National Concrete Canoe Competition are:
UW makes a smart move...
The University of Washington was beaten in the Pacific Northwest by Washington State University but they were invited to participate in this year's competition because they are the host school. The team elected to play their trump card this year...as opposed to playing it later to qualify for next year's national competition. I consider this to be a smart move. After all, this is the 20th Anniversary of the NCCC and I know several schools who would give their hind teeth to be in the hunt. With a little work between now and nationals, UW should be able to improve... placing them in a good position to do well in Seattle. Even though the team has never won a national title, they will be competing on home turf... and therefore pose a dangerous threat to the field. Make no mistake, this is a veteran organization that knows how to play the game... backed by a strong contingent of alumni that continuously contribute and support the competition. This will be UW's sixth national appearance. Their teams have finished three times in the top five and the school has a very good average placement record. This year's team will have to devote a great deal of person-power to hosting the competition but... Bottom line: I'd look for a strong showing... and a top ten finish..
National commentary... Here's how I see the rest of it ... with hyperlinks pointing to statistics, and logos pointing to web sites. Let's begin with the reigning national champion from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. The Badgers are one of four teams (Team UAH, the Berkeley Bears, and Clemson's 3CT are the other three) that have won this competition more than once. All four schools have won back-to-back titles; Berkeley is the only one to have accomplished this feat twice. But the Badgers are the only team in the history of the competition to have won four consecutive titles. This year, they will try to tie UAH's winning record by making it five. Host of the design report page for ConcreteCanoe.org, the Badgers are a veteran team that, along with Western Kentucky, will be making their thirteenth appearance at the national level. Although the Badgers carry momentum going into the competition, they will be under media scrutiny... and immense pressure from fellow competitors bound and determined to put an end their winning streak.
Last year, the Badgers blew away their competition with a very solid performance. They led going into the competition after winning the design report category... and that's exactly what they need to do this year if they expect to emerge victorious from the arena. Chances are that they will make only slight dimensional changes to their hull... mostly in length. Although their “Descendant” theme will be very strong... making for a good presentation... the team will be challenged for best product by at least three other competitors... and must confront Florida and Michigan Tech on the pond. But they have a very good boat and will be well-schooled... with veteran paddlers like Dave Blodgett. If you don't watch anything else on Dave's site, be sure to see the video from his Canadian trip... inspiring with a dynamite musical score; toward the end you'll understand why the Wisconsin team is so strong. The backdrop reminded me of my younger days when I lived and taught in Wisconsin... and spent days on end canoeing in the Canadian wilderness about 250 miles north of Thunder Bay. Top five... no doubt. 2007 NCCC Champion... the favorite. Bottom line: This team won't place much lower than second or third unless they make a mistake or get a bad break.
The team's highest national placement was sixth in 2002... and this will only be the Gator's 5th national appearance. Moreover, they have never won a major category at the national level. But don't let this competition record fool you... because UF has always been hungry for victory. They bested Florida Tech and Team UAH at the conference level... which together hold six national titles. The Gators know what they have to do to win in Seattle and will have a very large on-site contingent cheering them on.
The Gators demolished their competition with "Gladigator" at the conference level partly by adopting some good management tactics... They placed a veteran at the head of every working committee. The team also worked hard to refine their hull... They moved the widest point toward the stern and tested the design in a flow tank until the shape was perfected. But that's only the beginning... Florida made a smart move immediately following the conference competition... and also took a big risk... by sending their design report (in confidence) to UAH and Florida Tech for comments. I know because I read it from cover to cover. I didn't see any critical flaws... so expect Florida to finish high in the design report category. This move may very well establish a trend in more competitive regions such as the Mid-Pacific and Carolinas where it is in the best interest of all concerned that the national representative place top five. Although I didn't see it first hand, I understand that the Gators have a very strong presentation. They certainly have an impressive looking product. So... their team won't be giving up much ground in these categories. Moreover, the Gators last qualified for nationals in 2005... after making a very strong showing in the water at the regional level. But team members made the mistake of taking their feet off the gas between the regional and national competitions by disbanding and going their separate ways... resulting in poor performance during the races at nationals. I'll be very disappointed if this happens again... and trust that our sister school will keep their paddles in the water. I think that the team knows that we're counting on them to represent our region well. So... I predict that Florida's strongest performance will come during the races... when the quality of their product shines through. It will be very interesting to see how well this team does against Wisconsin... and I hope that all teams elect to trade boats following the competition... to get a better handle on which hull is really the best. The unknown here is whether the Gators can stand up under the pressure that it will take to dethrone Wisconsin. But the facts are that Florida was rock solid at the conference level and they have the second highest average placement record of the 2007 contingent. So if the team keeps their cool, a top five finish is a certainty. It may not look like it from the chart below, but a top three finish is in the cards. The Gators have been Team UAH's major competition in the Southeast for years... and we wish them well. 2007 National Champion... very likely! Bottom line: GO GATORS!... Like I said in the beginning... I'm giving you a "fairly" unbiased opinion.
Top five... definitely... they should finish in the top three. 2007 NCCC Champion... good possibility... especially if Madison and Florida split points in various scoring categories and Tech takes top honors in one. Bottom line: This team is destined for greatness and will strike gold... sooner or later.
UNR has the highest average placement record of the 2007 contingent, albeit based on a single performance. They won the presentation category last year... and the team would have placed higher than sixth overall... if it weren't for a low score in the final product category. Regarding their product... UNR and Berkeley had an accidental collision during the races in the Mid-Pacific Conference. But the Committee on National Concrete Canoe Competitions (CNCCC) reviewed UNR's request for repairs... and they have decided to waive the deduction, since it was accident related and not a durability issue. I think that this was an excellent decision on the Committee's part... and, I'm sure that Reno is breathing a sigh of relief.
The fact is that Reno has taken a very aggressive stand while promoting their efforts. In my opinion, they already have the will and spirit of a well seasoned national contender and will rise to the cream of the crop. Top five... probably. 2007 NCCC Champion... unlikely this go round... my best guess is fourth or fifth... unless they score big in the product category (their boat looks very good to me) and repeat their stellar performance in the presentation category. Bottom line: Anything can happen... and I'd be pleased to see Reno clean their competitors' clocks.
SLO won the final product category last year... and their product looks very good again this time round. They proved that they could hold their own in the water... but the team needs to improve in the presentation and report categories... if they want to win the national title. Top five... probably. 2007 NCCC Champion... perhaps... my best guess is fourth or fifth... unless they strike gold in the product category and have stellar performances elsewhere. Bottom line: I like this team and think that they will eventually lead the pack.
My fallback position... Good handicappers need to hedge their bets, so I'm going to highlight two more schools that could take top honors. But this is the tough part... because there are so many other good teams that could finish high...if the chips fall their way. If any of my top five picks makes a mistake or weakens in any category,
Western has done very well in the past and their boat looks pretty sharp... making me think that this team has a good chance of placing well overall. They scored the most design points in '02, built the best display in '02, and had the best product in '03. To place top five, the team needs to secure all of the technical points that they can get and then hold their own in the water. Historically, WKU hasn't been able to accomplish the latter. Bottom line: We'll see how it goes in Seattle.
The Wolf Pack broke the longest consecutive winning streak in NCCC history... set by Clemson's 3CT at 14. They have the right idea about "the strength of the pack." It reminds me of what we did before winning in 1993... when we moved on the Team UAH concept... after recognizing that teamwork is key to winning the title. NC State needs to improve their technical delivery to finish in the top tier... but I think that they have their act together. Bottom line: State will do rather well this year.
A strong national contingent... Take Fairmont
The boat's concrete outlays were designed to simulate the F-16 Thunderbird design. The concrete inlays represent the school's mascot... uniting the team’s theme ("Top Gun") and boat’s identity. With all this... Fairmont could surprise everyone. Bottom line: Expect a top ten finish at the very least. Another example is the The University of Oklahoma. They will be introducing shrinkage compensated concrete to the competition this year and recently established a new precedent by asking us to post their 2007 Design Report prior to the competition. According to chapter president, Russell Buhler, "We feel that the components of our mix design will provoke a lot of questions about the uncommon effects that were achieved. We'd like for teams to get a general idea of what we are doing so they could ask more specific questions at the competition." My hat goes off to Oklahoma for raising the bar at the national level while enhancing the technology transfer associated with this remarkable event.
You may want to spend a few minutes reading about their experience with Type K shrinkage reducing cement... Since their concrete has a final shrinkage of only 20 micro-strain, shrinkage cracking is virtually eliminated. This should get the team the points that they need to finish in the top ten. There are other factors that need to be considered that may throw my renderings off. Take ETS (Ecole de Technologie Superieure), for example. Canadian teams have been unable to compete for the past two years because of rule restrictions. But before that... Laval qualified for nationals as the Canadian National Champion... placing second in their three most recent bids. From a distance, ETS looks good... but how well will they do?
Bottom line: We'll have to wait and see. There are a number of other schools who could place top five, even upset the
field and win, or influence the final outcome by scoring major points in one or
more categories. Strong showings could come from Washington
Other veterans that could rise to the top include The
University of Maine,
The newcomers (no national statistics yet) are Mississippi
Synopsis... Here's my best guess for the top three finishers (from my top five picks only) in the four major scoring categories (in no particular order):
Note that the above table does not account for other schools that may place high in these categories... and I think that there will be at least three categories (report, presentation, and product) where other schools may take top three honors. In short, this year's competition will be very close... the Badgers, Gators, and Michigan Tech will vie for the top three spots... with Reno and Cal State - SLO very close behind. A slip by any of these competitors will mean disaster... making room for luckier and more skillful competitors to finish top five. But anything can happen... and all of the teams that I haven't targeted for the win will want to prove me wrong. If you do, rest assured that your school will be among my top picks in the years to come! Good luck and may the best team win... Through the years, Team UAH and I have developed a great deal of respect for our sister schools in the Southeast and for those schools that we face at the national level. We wish all of you the very best of luck at this year's competition and hope that you'll take time to say hello to Andrea and me in Seattle as we report for ConcreteCanoe.org. If you enjoy our coverage and want to help support us, please contact me. We'll put your school to work and give you the exposure that you deserve. By adding a link on your site to ConcreteCanoe.org, you and your school can help promote the competition. So please see our graphics and instructions for doing so. Thank you in advance for your support and kind consideration. Closing remarks... In closing, even though the rules may be overly complex, I thought that the Committee on National Concrete Canoe Competitions (CNCCC) did an excellent job this year in formulating and clarifying them. My hat goes off to the Committee for working so hard to make this event happen. I commend the sponsors and ASCE for promoting concrete canoeing... and thank ACI and ASCE on behalf of all... for giving the 2007 NCCC champion the international exposure that they so well deserve for winning. Finally, I want to commend my team for their relentless efforts. I wish that they were in the hunt this year... but things in life don't always go as planned. I've learned that you can't let things like that get you down and, no matter how bad it gets,
because... "Being defeated is often a temporary condition. Giving up is
what makes it permanent." That's all for now... We'll see you in Seattle! The nationals are over for 2007... but it's just the beginning for the Wisconsin Badgers who earned the right to represent the United States this September in the Netherlands. As mentioned in my Performance Predictions, I think that Madison will do very well in that competition. As far as "The Front Line" is concerned: From my main picks, I pegged four out of five of the top finishers (Madison, Florida, Reno, and Cal Poly - SLO); and, selected Western Kentucky as one of my two fallback positions... so I'd say that I did pretty well this year. The Wisconsin Badgers took the competition with 84.2 points (Wisconsin's Coverage). By scoring 81.9 points, the Florida Gators gave them a run for their money in the overall standings (Florida's Coverage) and nearly nipped the champs on the pond (Wisconsin - 22.9 points; Florida - 21.9) points). My hats go off to Florida for a very consistent delivery and a job well done! We're looking forward to seeing you next year in Orlando at the Southeast Conference. Nevada-Reno, my long shot, came through big time. Although the team scored only 62.0 points, they really weren't that far off the mark... and nearly dethroned Wisconsin. If you read the note that I made regarding the presentation in Reno's Coverage, I pegged them as one of the top performers in this category... and I was very surprised when they ended up in 14th place. Turns out that Nevada slipped up and went over the allotted time by a few seconds, forcing a 15 point deduction. If Reno had placed first or second in this event, they would have been in the winners circle with 87.0 or 84.5 points, respectively. Western Kentucky did an excellent job in bettering their position from last year. Their concrete guitar perked interest while their guitarist provided some great entertainment (WKU's Coverage). Cal Poly - SLO's mosaic was awesome. With it, the team established a new direction in graphic design (Cal Poly - SLO's Coverage). In closing, Andrea and I had a great time in Seattle. The competition ran very smoothly and I thought that everyone involved did an excellent job. We hope to see you all next year and wish all teams the very best of luck in the upcoming concrete canoeing season. |
It's
time to predict the the top five finishers
in the 2007 National Concrete Canoe Competition. But please remember that the opinions expressed here are my own
and do not reflect those of Team UAH, ASCE, ConcreteCanoe.org, and/or the
sponsors of the 2007 NCCC.
