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By JOHN A. GILBERT This marks the third year in a row that I've been asked to take a shot at
handicapping the ASCE/MBT National Concrete Canoe Competition and, because our
team did not qualify for the competition, thought that it would be interesting
to write something up for concretecanoe.org. Let me begin by saying that the opinions expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect those of Team UAH, ASCE, concretecanoe.org, and/or Master Builders. I've been asked so many times for my input that I decided that it would be better to write it down rather that tell my story over and over again. So, here goes but, remember, it's only for fun. What do I know anyway? But, just for the record, I picked eight schools for top honors in 2000: Clemson, UAH, Oklahoma State, the University of Washington, FIT, the University of Florida, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, and Michigan State University. Seven of these eight schools actually placed among the top eight. South Dakota finished eleventh while the University of Wisconsin-Madison took seventh. Ninth and tenth places went to Laval and Western Kentucky; schools that I predicted would better their prior performances at nationals. My worst prediction was that UAH would finish among the top five - we ended up sixth. Whoops! In 2001, I picked seven schools as potential top five picks. My top five choices (Clemson University, UAH, Oklahoma State University, Universite Laval, and South Dakota School of Mines and Technology) actually finished top five and nearly in the order specified. The only difference was that UAH finished first ahead of the defending champion from Clemson. Needless to say, I was pleased that my prediction was a little off the mark in that regard. My other two picks were slightly off too with University of California - Berkeley finishing ninth and the University of Madison eleventh. The University of Minnesota (sixth), Drexel (seventh), Western Kentucky University (eighth), and Colorado School of Mines (tenth) rounded out the top ten in the competition. O.K. - We all know that every one of this year's twenty five national qualifiers is already a winner and this competition amounts to selecting the best of the best. The veterans know that it takes a balanced effort and a cool head to become the national champion, and it remains to be seen which school will have the correct balance of skill and luck to win this year's competition. In the end, I believe that the key to victory lies in a team's ability to cope with human dynamics, and that trait becomes more and more difficult to master as the pressure begins to build. Since this is the 150th anniversary of ASCE, there will more spectators than usual. So, chances are that the level of play will be very high. The added publicity associated with this year's competition will place stringent demands on everyone involved. So how does this year’s field stack up? Well, that’s very difficult to say especially because teams can change dramatically from year to year. But here's how I see it: The University of Florida edged out defending champion Team UAH at the Southeast Regional. UF has a very focused effort and a lightning fast boat. Their women's team finished the sprint in 1:12:00, beating the record set by Clemson last year at nationals. UF's men's team finished only fractions of a second behind the new sprint record set by UAH (1:05:97). The bottom line is that UF has what it takes to win and, if they can keep their cool, will finish top five. Clemson has been the regional representative from the Carolina's Conference for ten years - the longest consecutive regional winning streak in the game. This year, 3CT (Clemson's Concrete Canoe Team) will be out to win their third national title. They definitely have the experience, teamwork, and technical delivery that it takes to win. Provided that 3CT's women's team returns and their men's team improves slightly, they will match UF in the water. If no major glitches occur in their delivery, Clemson will finish top five. The Universite Laval returns to the ASCE/MBT National as a five time Canadian National Champion. They have become a major player in the U.S. competition and will be striving to improve on their fourth place finish at last year's competition. If Laval enhances their technical delivery and has what it takes to match UF and 3CT in the water, they will be the first international competitor to take the U.S. title. Every indication is that Laval will finish top five. Oklahoma State poses a very dangerous threat to the top competitors. They have learned to play the game very well and have have had their sites set on the national title for the past few years. With their experience, one of the best technical deliveries in the game, and their ability to field a very fast boat, OSU will challenge for the lead and should finish top five. The University of Washington returns after missing last year's competition by failing to pass the flotation test at the regional competition. You can bet your bottom dollar that this veteran team won't be making many mistakes this year. Never underestimate Michigan State University and the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology. Both schools have taken top honors before, always have a good product, and are strong in the water. Western Kentucky has steadily improved their placement in their last five outings at the national level and chances are very good that this trend will continue. There are a number of other schools who have or could place top five, even upset the field and win, or influence the final outcome by scoring major points in one or more categories. It's not like we haven't seen upsets like this before. In 1997, for example, FIT came to nationals for the first time as the Southeast region's runner up and sailed past everyone to win the national title. All I can say is that the big guns better keep a watchful eye on fierce competitors such as Drexel, University of California-Berkeley, University of Wisconsin-Madison, and the University of New Orleans. Schools returning from last year include: North Carolina State University, Rowan University, University of Oklahoma, University of Rhode Island, California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo, University of Texas - El Paso, and Virginia Tech. Iowa State University, Colorado State University, and the Rochester Institute of Technology have been at nationals in prior years. San Diego State University will make their debut as last year's host. The only other newcomers are Texas A&M and the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. With so many veterans in the field, chances are very good that some of these schools will make strong showings in Wisconsin. But, barring an upset, my best guess is that the top five teams will come from among the eight schools highlighted above. One never knows though, and the rest of the field will want to prove me wrong - dead wrong. But if you do, you can be certain that your school will be among my top picks next year! In closing, when Team UAH fell victim to UF in Tallahassee this year, my fellow faculty advisor, Dr. Houssam Toutanji, and I reinforced our perspective on the competition by telling our team -- "You didn't place first in the competition. But, by doing your best, you won the game!" So, just remember that if your team falls a little short of your expectations, don't do what we did on the beach following our second place finish in 1992 - when we nearly decided not to compete in the concrete canoe competition again. Thank goodness we changed our outlook! We wish all of the national qualifiers the very best of luck at this year's competition and I hope to see all of the national contenders in Wisconsin as Team UAH and I report for concretecanoe.org. Please remember to work hard. But, be sure to have fun because it's up to you to make this experience one of the most memorable in your lifetime! You can check out the competition using our links to other concrete canoe web sites. See you soon! Note: See my comments made following the competition. |
