11:15 November 12, 2004
202 Madison Hall
Age Structure in Epidemic Models of Vector-Borne Infections
Diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in parts of Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Better models need to be developed to help combat these public health issues. While there are many epidemic models that incorporate age structure of vector-transmission, only a few incorporate both. In this dissertation we propose several general models for the spread of vector born infections with age structure. We consider the very complex situation of continuous age dependence which leads to a system of partial differential equations. As a special case, we examine discrete age structure. These models consist of a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations. In each of the models we allow for disease-induced death and for a variable human population. Conditions under which an epidemic can invade a susceptible population are presented in terms of the basic reproduction number. Numerical examples for malaria and dengue fever are discussed as well as implications for control for the disease. Avenues for further work will round out the presentation.
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